ERA Assesses Timeframe For Air Travel Recovery
The air travel sector in the European Union will not recover from the blow inflicted by the coronavirus pandemic until 2024 at the earliest, Montserrat Barriga, Secretary General of the European aviation industry association ERA, told.
« European aviation remains one of the sectors most affected by the pandemic. Although we are on the road to recovery, a full recovery reaching 2019 levels is not expected before 2024, » she said.
This is based on Eurocontrol’s forecast of possible domestic and international air traffic in Europe over the next four years.
« However, even this scenario is considered optimistic. The second scenario is the most likely, with traffic in 2024 recovering to 95% of the 2019 figure. The third, most pessimistic scenario assumes that traffic in 2024 will reach only 74% of the 2019 figure, with full recovery not occurring before 2029, » Barriga said.
All of these scenarios are based on the assumption that there will be widespread vaccination in Europe, combined with a coordinated easing of travel restrictions and a recovery of long-haul flight traffic.
However, according to the association’s secretary general, outbreaks of new strains of COVID-19, which cannot be ruled out, would be bad for passenger confidence and, consequently, for flights.
ERA is a trade association representing more than 55 airlines and more than 130 associate members, including manufacturers, airports and aviation service providers across the aviation industry.